Monday, September 22, 2008

No problem? No problem.

Don't try to fill 'er up in Nashville right now.

Last Friday morning, unconfirmed reports of a gasoline shortage started circulating. No one knows how the rumors got started, but local media picked up the gossip and long lines began forming at stations throughout middle Tennessee.

By evening rush hour, less than 10% of Nashville-area retailers had gas left to sell -- in an eight-hour span when most folks were at work, a city of 600,000 essentially ran itself out of gas.

Residents limped through last weekend by car-pooling or staying home. Gas stations aren't expecting deliveries until today or tomorrow.

Nashville wasn't struck by a natural disaster. Before the rumors took hold, there was no critical shortage of fuel. Like much of the Southeast and Midwest, thanks to hurricanes Gustav and Ike, the city was dealing with reduced supplies, but the situation was manageable.

Then came the rumors, and panic-buying overtook the city. At that point, all bets were off.

Nashvillians have no one but themselves to blame, of course, but the rest of us shouldn't feel too smug -- an irrational "run" like this can happen anywhere, any time and with any commodity.

After the remnants of Ike blew through central Ohio a week ago, a low-grade version of the Nashville panic unfolded right here, as stores quickly sold out of typical disaster-related items. Still, my family and I didn't have to pay high prices or wait in line -- because our approach, to coin a phrase, is "cache-and-carry (on)."

Think about it -- anyone with a garage or a utility shed probably has a safe place to cache at least 20 gallons of gasoline. We add a couple of ounces of Sta-bil to each five-gallon can and rotate our stock through the lawn tractor, refilling containers as they're emptied.

Spending four bucks on a shrink-wrapped flat of bottled water every trip to the grocery quickly adds up to an emergency stockpile; the same principle can be applied to accumulating stores of non-perishable food. Tossing each day's pocket change into a jar, then rolling the coins and stashing them away, answers the question, "What do I do if nobody's taking credit cards and all the ATMs are down?"

It ain't rocket science.

When we hear "preparedness," we usually think of getting ready for natural disasters like hurricanes or ice storms, or a man-made calamity like a chemical spill or even a terrorist attack. But as the Nashville scenario demonstrates, unprepared and panic-prone Americans are quite capable of creating their own crises.

The same rules apply. Prepare -- now.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Extremes

This being a home-game Saturday, my wife and I made our regular pilgrimage to the Hineygate Party, renewing our membership in the Bud-for-breakfast club.

Hineygate is what it is -- raw, loud and raucous. People our age, suitably lubricated and bedecked in scarlet and gray, dance like teenagers. Moms fit their kids with earplugs to protect them from the speakers' blast and cover their eyes to shield them from things they'll understand when they're older.


It's partisan partying at its very best, and we love it.

But today, maybe because last night was a late one, or maybe because we'd seen this show so many times before, we just got bored. So we poured out the last of our beer, hopped in the car and drove 45 miles east -- far, far from Hineygate, to the
Thornville Backwoods Fest.

As we idled along in the line waiting to enter the festival grounds, cornfields rose up on both sides of the road, wrapping us in a heartland quilt of green and gold.

I rolled down the car window and listened. Aside from the chirping of crickets and the soft throb of engines, it was quiet. And compared to the gameday din we'd left behind, it was downright silent.

We had no real clue about the size of the event until we rolled into a grassy field packed with thousands of cars, trucks and RVs -- not at all what we'd been expecting. After a dusty uphill hike from the parking area, we entered the Backwoods gates.

Hundreds of vendors were camped along wide, straw-strewn paths that snaked through the woods. Mostly, their offerings were a bit too cliché-country for my liking, but there were enough primitive artisans to hold my interest.

We strolled past the kitsch, preferring to linger over the more soulful wares of blacksmiths, cabinetmakers and weavers.
The Spoonmaker was there. A woman from the North Woods of Michigan displayed various items carved from deer antlers, and we bought a few of her intriguing trinkets.

Kettle chips crackled in big iron cauldrons. The aromas of fried green tomatoes and caramel apples beckoned. We saw our favorite baker, whose small shop is just up the street from our house, selling loaves of fresh bread. Scattered throughout the festival were musicians, alone and in groups, serenading us with plain voices and simple acoustic instruments.

Two hours later, refreshed by the experience, Mrs. KintlaLake and I made our way to the car. We wound through rolling farmland, past combines whirring in wheat fields, and back home -- a comfortable place, nestled perfectly between today's extremes.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Friday night lights

Our small-but-sprawling community is big enough to support two high schools. Strange as it seems, they’d never faced each other in football -- until tonight.

The inaugural game of this cross-town rivalry was a special neutral-field affair, played at the major-league soccer stadium up in the big city -- a great venue, for sure, but despite thousands of enthusiastic parents, students and fans, the crowd managed to fill only 20% of the seats.

Next time, those creaky old wooden bleachers will do just fine. Better suited to high-school football, I think.

So did our team win? Well, that depends.

If we're talking about the high school on our side of town, the one just a half-mile up the road from the KintlaLake house, then yes -- and in a rout, 38-7.

Thanks to the miracle of open enrollment, however, the KintlaLake spawns attend school across town -- so the truth is that we got our clocks thoroughly cleaned by our bigger, faster and stronger neighbors. We didn't even score until late in the fourth quarter. Sheesh.

Our marching band was better, though, dammit.

Maybe that's not a bad idea

"Anyone engaging in illegal financial transactions will be caught and persecuted." (from today's statement on the economy by George W. Bush -- President of the United States, Leader of the Free World, & Malaprop Generator-in-Chief)

Ohio gun owners win again

The Supreme Court of Ohio ruled yesterday that state law giving Ohioans the right to carry concealed weapons overrules a city's ability to deny that right and otherwise regulate firearms. The narrow 4-3 decision also is expected to invalidate restrictions on so-called "assault weapons" by cities like Columbus and Cleveland.

Central to the case was a 2004 state law that overruled local bans and ordinances requiring registration, waiting periods, and trigger locks. A measure reinforcing that statewide policy was passed in 2006 and then vetoed by Republican then-Gov. Bob Taft, but the legislature voted to override the veto.

Yesterday's victory, spearheaded by Ohioans for Concealed Carry, comes on the heels of the enactment of Ohio S.B. 184 -- which brought "Castle Doctrine" and other benefits to law-abiding Ohio gun owners -- and the landmark Heller decision in the U.S. Supreme Court.

Those of us who cherish our individual right to keep and bear arms, guaranteed by both the U.S. Constitution and the Ohio Constitution, would seem to be living in the best of times. And while it's true that we've made significant progress in reclaiming our constitutional rights, we remain under siege by those who exemplify the words of Benjamin Franklin:
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
We have our liberty -- for now -- but we must never forget its price: eternal vigilance.

Pledge drive

Our federal government is about to announce what amounts to another bailout, this time a program to help banks get rid of hard-to-unload mortgage assets.

Between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury, here's what's been pledged so far:
  • $29 billion toward the purchase of Bear Stearns.
  • $85 billion to postpone the collapse of AIG.
  • $150 billion to backstop banks.
  • $200 billion to prop-up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
  • $300 billion to the FHA.
  • $25 billion to the auto industry.
That comes to nearly $800 billion. Now, to this dizzying number, add the cost of a new government agency taking on Wall Street's bad debts -- another $1 trillion.

When it comes to Wall Street, federal fiscal policy is all carrot and no stick. Even the FHA infusion benefits mortgage companies more than it does homeowners. As long as that's the plan, the death penalty for failure, or even malfeasance, is off the table.

Today, gleeful markets will soar. You and I will pay for their party tomorrow.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

The death of irony

"Frankly I don't like him. I feel like he is an elitist." (Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, on Sen. Barack Obama, to CNN in July. Lady de Rothschild, a DNC member and former supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, announced recently that she's now backing Sen. John McCain. A communications mega-mogul, Lady de Rothschild has a reported net worth of $40 million; her husband, Sir Evelyn Robert Adrian de Rothschild of the British banking Rothschilds, has a reported family empire of $1.5 trillion.)

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

No confidence

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average responded to the Federal Reserve's $85 billion bailout of AIG by shedding over 449 points, settling at 10,609 -- its lowest close in nearly three years.

Since a one-day snapshot doesn't tell the whole story, consider that the Dow saw its all-time high of 14,164 less than one year ago. Since then, the American economy has been hemorrhaging capital, the market losing more than 25% of its value between last October 9th and today.

"Stay in the market, you'll get all your money back and more!" cry the experts. "Don't just do something -- stand there!"

I'm no investment guru, but in the face of an unprecedented economic meltdown and corrupt U.S. fiscal policy, that may no longer be good advice.

'Too big to fail'

We, the American taxpayers and our children, now own a really big insurance company.

Last night, the Federal Reserve announced that it'll lend $85 billion of our money to bail out American International Group, in return for an 80% stake in the company.

So much for our free-market economy.

The principle at work here is that some companies simply are "too big to fail." AIG's tentacles reach too far and too deep, we're told, and too many individual and institutional investors would be hurt by the failure. And we’re warned, of course, that the total implosion of AIG would "roil the markets" across the globe.

That some companies succeed and some fail is fundamental to a free-market economy. The insurance business is all about managing risk -- and AIG, the world's largest insurer, failed to manage its own risk.

That's why AIG's stock price (and thus its market capitalization) is down 92% just this year, and why the major credit-rating agencies downgraded the company. It's also why even Wall Street's biggest players couldn't put together $75 billion to rescue AIG.

No one truly believes that $85 billion will save AIG, or that taxpayers will ever see a dime of that money. Considering the interest rate of 11.31%, a company that can't meet its business obligations isn't going to be able to pay a loan shark.

The bailout merely postpones the inevitable -- not just for AIG, but for our entire dysfunctional economy.

For the record, I don't subscribe to the naive suggestion that the federal government should devote its trillions to saving individual investors and homeowners from certain bankruptcy instead of rescuing big Wall Street firms. Rather, I submit that it's in our best long-term interest to once again make failure an integral part of our economic system.

The short-term pain would be deep, excruciating and, by any measure, devastating. It'd take years to recover and rebuild. But as long as we keep rewarding incompetence, our economy sits on a weakening foundation. Whether it crumbles slowly or collapses catastrophically, the outcome is the same.

Let it fail.

Quotes of the Day

"She's really chill." (Meghan McCain, daughter of Sen. John McCain, on Gov. Sarah Palin)

"I was hoping on Sunday when we got back to watch the film the power would be out, but it wasn't..." (Ohio State Football Coach Jim Tressel, on his team's 35-3 loss to #1 USC)

"He did this...you're looking at the miracle John McCain helped create." (Douglas Holtz-Eakin, top economic advisor for the McCain-Palin campaign, holding up his BlackBerry)

"This was obviously a boneheaded joke by a staffer." (Matt McDonald, senior advisor to McCain-Palin, on Mr. Holtz-Eakin crediting Sen. McCain with creating the BlackBerry)

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

It gets no better

Watch & learn

Across the state of Ohio, damage from Sunday's visit by "Ike Lite" is widespread. More than a million homes and businesses remain without power, many schools are closed for a second straight day and six deaths have been attributed to the windstorm.

On the bright side, recovery isn't being hampered by floodwaters, rain or sweltering heat -- the last two days have been clear and calm, with temps ranging from the mid-50s to the low 70s. For power-company and debris-removal crews, it's like cleaning up after a big ice storm, without having to battle snow and freezing cold.

So no, Ohioans aren't suffering like Texans are. But to be fair, some of my fellow Buckeyes truly are hurting -- homes made uninhabitable, serious injuries sustained, small businesses interrupted or destroyed.

Those dealing with real adversity deserve help from neighbors and relief organizations. Watching local news this morning, however, I was struck by the words of a woman who looked to be in her 30s, interviewed last night at a Red Cross emergency shelter:
"I didn't want to be in the dark any more."
Less than 24 hours after the winds subsided, she succumbed to the unbearable torment of living without artificial light. Unfortunately, she's typical of spoiled, unprepared Americans.

That shelter, set up at the state fairgrounds, can accommodate up to 20,000 people. I can't help wondering how many of this lady's fellow "refugees" reflect her helplessness and attitude of entitlement.

By 9am yesterday, stores here in metro Columbus were sold out of flashlights, batteries, candles, bottled water, generators and chain saws. Many gas stations lucky enough to have power have run dry because their scheduled deliveries have been delayed. The local ice-making company sold 400,000 bags and had to close to make more.

Panic may be embarrassing, but at least it's instructive.

The first lesson, of course, is to notice that we're surrounded by parasites and vow never to join the ill-prepared majority.

Second, we need to differentiate between an inconvenience and a hardship. Darkness isn't a tragedy and ice isn't a necessity -- and burning gallon after gallon of scarce, four-dollar gas to find a store selling ice is just plain ignorant.

Next, since it's reasonable to presume that even the hardest-hit areas will be back to normal within a week, we should resist the temptation to run out and get what we should've had before things went south. We'll only face long lines, short supplies and premium prices, and we'll be draining our gas tanks. Dumb.

Better that we suck it up, use what we have and deal with a little temporary discomfort.

While we're making do and doing without, we should take full advantage of the situation -- I mean, this is a summertime power outage, not TEOTWAWKI in January. It's a good time to note the items we're missing -- a 12-volt "car charger" for the cell phone, an extra tank of gas for the grill, a one-burner propane camp stove, a battery-powered lantern for the dining-room table, a hand saw, a big blue tarp, etc.

And then there are those Homer-esque "Doh!" moments -- like reaching for the garage-door button and realizing that we have to lift it manually. How's this rope thing work? Better practice doing this before the next outage. Damn, it's heavy. Maybe I should lube the springs and cables.

Finally, for those of us with kids, we should use the experience as an opportunity to teach patience, self-reliance and simple, practical skills. In the end, the most important lessons we learn may be the ones we pass along to our children.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Bits & notes

The spawns and I put our backs into our morning and made short work of the downed pear tree. The front lawn is clear again and our modest woodpile is a bit taller.

If not for a cheap, cantankerous and seldom-used chain saw, the work would've gone much faster.

Note to self: This is stupid. Either fix the damned thing, or bite the bullet and get a real one.

* * *

Last I checked, the price of crude oil has dropped over four dollars a barrel today, falling below $97 for the first time since early this year.

Nationally, the price of gas is headed in the opposite direction, today up to $3.84 a gallon for regular -- considerably lower than July's all-time high of $4.35, but up from $3.76 a month ago and $2.79 a year ago.

Around here, most stations are charging right at $4.00.

Note to self: Travel lighter, and ride the motorcycle more often.

* * *

After the feds declined to repeat the mistakes they've made in bailing out Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investment bank Lehman Brothers has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Also this morning, Bank of America announced that it plans to buy Merrill Lynch, the nation's largest investment house, for the fire-sale price of $50 billion.


Right now, for what it's worth these days, the Dow is down 295 points. (Edit: The index closed the day down 504, the biggest point loss since 2001.)

We can stop using words like "tumultuous" and "rocky" to describe the state of our economy. This is a crisis, and well outside our experience.

I suspect it's just begun.

Note to self: Conserve and prepare.


* * *

Here's a text message my wife received this morning from a dear friend in Houston:
No power. Have water. Low on ice. God sent us some a/c. I'm grateful!
Note to self: Count your blessings.

Charmed

(Considering the damage suffered and the hardships now being endured by residents of Texas and Louisiana, I know that what I'm about to describe is the proverbial hangnail.)

Here in the KintlaLake household, we must be living right -- electric power returned overnight.

To put our good fortune into perspective, American Electric Power reports that 71% of our neighbors are still doing without, and the utility is sticking with its projection that some customers may not be restored for a week. Crews that had been dispatched to help residents of Texas and Louisiana recover from Hurricane Ike are being recalled to Ohio.

The large housing development behind us remains dark and, save the sound of a chain saw and a few generators, quiet. During her 17-mile commute, my wife told of navigating an obstacle course of dead traffic lights and downed trees, including one in front of her office, which remains without power.

Our spawns, by the way, are still in bed -- their schools, like virtually all districts in the area, are closed today.

Relatively speaking, our humble hilltop home weathered the windstorm well. Along with the fallen pear I mentioned yesterday, we lost the top of a yellow poplar tree and our lawn is littered with leaves and small branches. Some of the more willowy plants in our garden took quite a beating. Just one shingle was ripped from our roof and a few others were damaged. Four hours of unrelenting wind also managed to push our garden shed off its blocks.

That's it -- charmed, indeed.

When our power winked out yesterday afternoon, we didn't know, of course, how long the minor inconvenience would last. It ended up being a simple flashlights-and-candles affair, with a battery-operated radio keeping us apprised of the situation around us. It was easy to remember not to open the freezer, somewhat more difficult remembering not to flush the toilets (as our younger spawn discovered). We used less than a gallon of our of water stores, mostly for washing.

Easy.

However brief, it was a useful exercise. Now the cleanup begins.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Darkness & smoke

As night comes, the strong wind brings a strong odor.

I know that smell. It's a structure fire.

From our home's highest vantage point, we see no telltale glow against the sky. In this wind, the fire could be miles away.

According to the news on a local AM radio station, power is out in 500,000 homes due to the windstorm, and it could be a week before all are restored.

Mrs. KintlaLake and the spawns just left for my in-laws' shower across town. Like us, they're without electricity, but they have city water.

I think I'll spend the time thinking about how easy I've got it compared to the folks in Texas.

(posted via mobile phone)

Spoke too soon


Sitting near an open window in our upstairs office, my wife and I were enjoying the "breeze" when we heard a sharp crack. "There it goes!" she said.

We looked up in time to see one of our pear tree's large trunks fall past the window and into our front yard. It just missed the front porch.

Tomorrow's project. Next year's firewood.

The wind's still blowing, harder than before.


(posted via mobile phone)

Blowing by


The remnants of Ike, with 45mph winds gusting to 75mph, are passing through the neighborhood right now. I'm posting this from my mobile phone -- power and 'net are out for the time being.

I just came inside after picking up some downed branches. We haven't yet lost any trees, but our neighbor's pear split in two.

Especially entertaining: a sheet of plywood, from a nearby school under construction, pinwheeling through the air.

The sound of transformers popping is a bit unnerving, but the feel of the wind is glorious.

(posted via mobile phone)

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Pulling for pretenders

The Ohio State University Buckeyes are my football team. Always will be.

The team that showed up in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum tonight, however, didn't belong on the same field with the Trojans of the University of Southern California.


USC 35, OSU 3.

Ranked #5? Someone check the math.

Props to Coach Pete Carroll and his team, along with anyone who's been saying that the Big Ten is overrated. They're right -- and that's sad to say, but after this game, it's not difficult to say.

After getting their asses handed to them by the clearly superior Men of Troy, maybe next week Ohio State can find a way to be competitive with the Boys of Troy (University).


Go Bucks...please...?

Mrs. KintlaLake's WVU Mountaineers won't play 'til Thursday, but being a Rich Rodriguez-hater, at least she got something out of today -- Michigan's loss to Notre Dame -- which is just more evidence that the Big Ten is playing pretend, not football.

Recipe: Bittersweet dinosaur juice

Step 1
Buy groceries at Kroger, for a family of four, throughout August. Earn lots of Kroger Fuel Points for September.

Step 2
Drive past BP station selling regular gas for $3.999/gallon. Cross the street to Kroger selling regular for $3.799/gallon. Buy 18 gallons.

Step 3
Pay for gas, use Kroger Fuel Points, pay $3.299/gallon.

Step 4
Kick self in the ass for being happy to pay $3.299/gallon.

Step 5
Go grocery shopping at Kroger, earn points for October.

Step 6
Leave grocery 45 minutes later, notice that Kroger has raised its price to $3.999/gallon.

Shedding more light

Ike came ashore just after 2am CDT as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Even as it moves inland, the storm is expected to maintain hurricane strength through early afternoon.

Damage wreaked by wind and water will be significant. It'll be weeks before we know just how bad it is.

Yesterday's
post referred to Ike's potential impact on the oil-and-gas industry, using numbers cited in media reports. Since then, I've done some digging for more specifics.

I like specifics. Pictures are even better, because they help me wrap my pedestrian brain around dry statistics and featureless factoids.

Every time a big storm percolates in the Gulf of Mexico, we hear about the danger it poses to oil platforms -- but how many platforms are out there? And where are they?

Nearly 4,000 platforms, as it turns out, stand (or float) right in the path of hurricanes like Ike.

We're all familiar with the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve," the emergency fuel supplies maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy. Ok, so it's a political football -- but beyond that, where and how is the oil stored?

The SPR is housed in artificial caverns carved from salt domes, as deep as 3,000 feet underground. This graphic shows the four SPR storage locations, along with related refineries and pipelines.

The reasons for building these facilities in this area are as obvious as they are sound, but again, this vital complex sits squarely in the path of Rita, Katrina, Ike and the like.

Knowing all this, then, human nature begs the next question: What's the worst that could happen?

In an attempt to answer that,
energy-investment gurus put their heads together with severe-weather experts and plotted the path of "The Ultimate Storm."

No, we're not looking at Ike -- notice that in the worst case, the storm doesn't make landfall until it slams into the Texas coast. Without dry land to sap its energy, such a system would continue to strengthen into a devastating Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

So while we don't yet know the toll taken by Hurricane Ike, it could've been worse -- much worse.