No problem? No problem.

Don't try to fill 'er up in Nashville right now.

Last Friday morning, unconfirmed reports of a gasoline shortage started circulating. No one knows how the rumors got started, but local media picked up the gossip and long lines began forming at stations throughout middle Tennessee.

By evening rush hour, less than 10% of Nashville-area retailers had gas left to sell -- in an eight-hour span when most folks were at work, a city of 600,000 essentially ran itself out of gas.

Residents limped through last weekend by car-pooling or staying home. Gas stations aren't expecting deliveries until today or tomorrow.

Nashville wasn't struck by a natural disaster. Before the rumors took hold, there was no critical shortage of fuel. Like much of the Southeast and Midwest, thanks to hurricanes Gustav and Ike, the city was dealing with reduced supplies, but the situation was manageable.

Then came the rumors, and panic-buying overtook the city. At that point, all bets were off.

Nashvillians have no one but themselves to blame, of course, but the rest of us shouldn't feel too smug -- an irrational "run" like this can happen anywhere, any time and with any commodity.

After the remnants of Ike blew through central Ohio a week ago, a low-grade version of the Nashville panic unfolded right here, as stores quickly sold out of typical disaster-related items. Still, my family and I didn't have to pay high prices or wait in line -- because our approach, to coin a phrase, is "cache-and-carry (on)."

Think about it -- anyone with a garage or a utility shed probably has a safe place to cache at least 20 gallons of gasoline. We add a couple of ounces of Sta-bil to each five-gallon can and rotate our stock through the lawn tractor, refilling containers as they're emptied.

Spending four bucks on a shrink-wrapped flat of bottled water every trip to the grocery quickly adds up to an emergency stockpile; the same principle can be applied to accumulating stores of non-perishable food. Tossing each day's pocket change into a jar, then rolling the coins and stashing them away, answers the question, "What do I do if nobody's taking credit cards and all the ATMs are down?"

It ain't rocket science.

When we hear "preparedness," we usually think of getting ready for natural disasters like hurricanes or ice storms, or a man-made calamity like a chemical spill or even a terrorist attack. But as the Nashville scenario demonstrates, unprepared and panic-prone Americans are quite capable of creating their own crises.

The same rules apply. Prepare -- now.

Bits & notes

The spawns and I put our backs into our morning and made short work of the downed pear tree. The front lawn is clear again and our modest woodpile is a bit taller.

If not for a cheap, cantankerous and seldom-used chain saw, the work would've gone much faster.

Note to self: This is stupid. Either fix the damned thing, or bite the bullet and get a real one.

* * *

Last I checked, the price of crude oil has dropped over four dollars a barrel today, falling below $97 for the first time since early this year.

Nationally, the price of gas is headed in the opposite direction, today up to $3.84 a gallon for regular -- considerably lower than July's all-time high of $4.35, but up from $3.76 a month ago and $2.79 a year ago.

Around here, most stations are charging right at $4.00.

Note to self: Travel lighter, and ride the motorcycle more often.

* * *

After the feds declined to repeat the mistakes they've made in bailing out Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investment bank Lehman Brothers has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Also this morning, Bank of America announced that it plans to buy Merrill Lynch, the nation's largest investment house, for the fire-sale price of $50 billion.

Right now, for what it's worth these days, the Dow is down 295 points. (Edit: The index closed the day down 504, the biggest point loss since 2001.)

We can stop using words like "tumultuous" and "rocky" to describe the state of our economy. This is a crisis, and well outside our experience.

I suspect it's just begun.

Note to self: Conserve and prepare.

* * *

Here's a text message my wife received this morning from a dear friend in Houston:

No power. Have water. Low on ice. God sent us some a/c. I'm grateful!

Note to self: Count your blessings.

Recipe: Bittersweet dinosaur juice

Step 1
Buy groceries at Kroger, for a family of four, throughout August. Earn lots of Kroger Fuel Points for September.

Step 2
Drive past BP station selling regular gas for $3.999/gallon. Cross the street to Kroger selling regular for $3.799/gallon. Buy 18 gallons.

Step 3
Pay for gas, use Kroger Fuel Points, pay $3.299/gallon.

Step 4
Kick self in the ass for being happy to pay $3.299/gallon.

Step 5
Go grocery shopping at Kroger, earn points for October.

Step 6
Leave grocery 45 minutes later, notice that Kroger has raised its price to $3.999/gallon.

Shedding more light

Ike came ashore just after 2am CDT as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Even as it moves inland, the storm is expected to maintain hurricane strength through early afternoon.

Damage wreaked by wind and water will be significant. It'll be weeks before we know just how bad it is.

Yesterday's post referred to Ike's potential impact on the oil-and-gas industry, using numbers cited in media reports. Since then, I've done some digging for more specifics.

I like specifics. Pictures are even better, because they help me wrap my pedestrian brain around dry statistics and featureless factoids.

Every time a big storm percolates in the Gulf of Mexico, we hear about the danger it poses to oil platforms -- but how many platforms are out there? And where are they?

Nearly 4,000 platforms, as it turns out, stand (or float) right in the path of hurricanes like Ike.

We're all familiar with the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve," the emergency fuel supplies maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy. Ok, so it's a political football -- but beyond that, where and how is the oil stored?

The SPR is housed in artificial caverns carved from salt domes, as deep as 3,000 feet underground. This graphic shows the four SPR storage locations, along with related refineries and pipelines.

The reasons for building these facilities in this area are as obvious as they are sound, but again, this vital complex sits squarely in the path of Rita, Katrina, Ike and the like.

Knowing all this, then, human nature begs the next question: What's the worst that could happen?

In an attempt to answer that, energy-investment gurus put their heads together with severe-weather experts and plotted the path of "The Ultimate Storm."

No, we're not looking at Ike -- notice that in the worst case, the storm doesn't make landfall until it slams into the Texas coast. Without dry land to sap its energy, such a system would continue to strengthen into a devastating Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

So while we don't yet know the toll taken by Hurricane Ike, it could've been worse -- much worse.

Ike & the like

Most Americans can't imagine what it's like to stare down the barrel of Hurricane Ike, now taking aim on the Texas Gulf Coast.

I know I can't.

Sure, I lived in southern New England when Gloria -- the most-hyped storm in history -- came ashore as a weak Category 2 hurricane just 20 miles south of my home in 1985. I remember walls shaking, trees falling, lights winking and the eerie calm of the eye passing overhead.

Compared to Ike, Gloria was a nursery rhyme.

Forecasters say that Ike will arrive on Galveston Island early tomorrow morning as a Category 3 hurricane. By the time it reaches the Houston metropolitan area, 40 miles inland, it may still pack a Category 2 wallop. Coastal communities are expecting a 20-foot storm surge, and some areas already are under water. Ike's cloud shield, edge-to-edge, measures a staggering 900 miles.

As I watch a different weather system drop rain outside my window, a thousand miles from Galveston, Ike is just another news story -- except that it'll interrupt 25% of America's oil-refining capacity, 20% of domestic oil production and 15% of our natural-gas production, not to mention the temporary shutdown (at least) of numerous big chemical plants.

So while I keep the people of Galveston and Houston in my thoughts, I'll be equally mindful of the storm's impact on our punch-drunk economy. We seem capable of absorbing these painful blows, provided they're thrown one at a time, but what'll we do if they start coming in flurries?

* * *

I should've bought gas last week.

I don't drive much these days, and I've let my tank (and my fuel cache) drift toward empty while watching prices fall. In just the last 24 hours, they've jumped by 20 cents a gallon around here.

Lazy, optimistic, and not terribly smart.

* * *

On Wednesday, Sen. Joe Biden said -- out loud and publicly -- that Sen. Hillary Clinton "might have been a better pick" for Sen. Barack Obama's running mate.

And yesterday, when asked by ABC's Charlie Gibson if she agrees with the "Bush Doctrine" -- the well-known policy of striking preemptively before being attacked -- Gov. Sarah Palin did her best impression of a moose in the headlights.

You just can't make this stuff up.

* * *

As I said on Wednesday, I've joined the ranks of the undecided, stepping back from my decision to vote for McCain-Palin. Reaction from readers, friends and family has been strong, to say the least, and overwhelmingly negative.

For the most part, I've been told that not voting for McCain-Palin would be "stupid" -- that's what we say, of course, about people who disagree with us. Democrats say it about Republicans. Conservatives say it about liberals. We have bookstores full of titles like Liberalism is a Mental Disorder, Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot, and If Democrats Had Any Brains, They'd Be Republicans.

No wonder our country is stuck in reverse.

The 2008 presidential election will be my ninth, so I'm not exactly naive about the dynamics of a close race. I know that if I don't vote for McCain-Palin, I could be handing the equivalent of two votes to Obama-Biden -- especially significant in the so-called "battleground state" of Ohio, thanks to the Electoral College.

The McCain-Palin campaign's intellectual bankruptcy finally drove me to question the wisdom of casting a "defensive vote" against Obama-Biden, especially in light of my clear disagreement with the GOP ticket on issues like abortion rights, the U.S. occupation of Iraq and fiscal policy. I realized that I'd become part of an opposition flock of red sheep, and I'm not sure that's the best way for me to exercise my sacred privilege on November 4th.

If I do decide to vote for a minor-party candidate, I'd be leaving the flock in pursuit of a far greater good, as I perceive it, acknowledging that an Obama presidency isn't the most sinister threat to my country's future.

In terms of sentiment, I'd be standing with a majority of Americans who believe that the two dominant parties have broken more than they've fixed. In terms of action, however, I'd be decidedly in the minority, and frankly, that's a scary place to be. But as natural-gas wildcatter John Masters said,

"You have to recognize that every 'out-front' maneuver is going to be lonely. But if you feel entirely comfortable, then you're not far enough ahead to do any good. That warm sense of everything going well is usually the body temperature at the center of the herd. Only if you're far enough ahead to be at risk do you have a chance for large rewards."

(It occurs to me that political poseurs McCain-Palin and Obama-Biden might want to consult Mr. Masters before invoking buzzwords like "maverick" or "change.")

We need fundamental and revolutionary change, not the cosmetic, dime-store variety proposed by the two big campaigns. It won't happen in a single election, but it has to start somewhere.

It might as well start with me.

* * *

Less than 36 hours from now, my #5 Ohio State Buckeyes will play the top-ranked USC Trojans in the Los Angeles Coliseum.

OSU running back "Beanie" Wells, arguably the team's best player, is still nursing an injured foot and has been listed as "doubtful" for the game. USC presents enough of a challenge with Wells in the lineup, and if he's on the sidelines...

I'm going to end this post here -- it's damned near impossible to type with all my fingers crossed.

'Silver Lining Syndrome'

Just before the sun came up this morning, the temperature here in central Ohio was 55°F -- and because it's mid-August, we call that "chilly." Had it been March, we'd be calling it "balmy."

When our frame of reference changes -- even when the facts don't -- so does our description. It's part of our never-ending quest for context. And that's fine, as far as it goes.

It's the same reason that Americans are being urged to dance a national jig over gasoline that costs only $3.81 a gallon -- because last month, we were paying a record $4.11. Over the same period, the price of oil has dropped from $147 to only $114.

We seem to have forgotten that a year ago, oil was $70 and gas was $2.77. Or that in late 2003, when a gallon of gas cost $1.55, the price of a barrel of oil hadn't yet broken the $30 mark.

So cancel the cake, send the band home and, for cryin' out loud, take that silly hat off your head -- the cost of commuting to work, taking a vacation, harvesting our food and hauling goods to market is nearly 250% of what it was just five years ago, and you want us to party?

Someone needs to tell the government and the news media that one month's perspective is useless -- there's nothing here to celebrate.

A week, at random

The past week has been plenty eventful, but after last Monday's mad dash to the ER I haven't put together a train of thought that might, in my judgment, be worthy of a post.

Life is composed of small bits. Here are a few.

Politics
Ever since the major parties' presumptive nominees were decided, I've taken a purposeful break from this subject. I remain aware, just disinterested and more than a little fatigued.

That's bound to change as November approaches.

I'm still wary of Sen. Obama's reliance on entitlements and the threat he poses to our Second Amendment rights. Sen. McCain, preferable by comparison, concerns me -- I'm not convinced that his political résumé is much more than a paper trail, and I've noticed that his personality has a bad habit of trumping his judgment.

Don't talk to me about no-shot minor-party candidates, however righteous they may be, or the prospect of my abstaining on Election Day. Either approach would be akin to taking a principled drill to a lifeboat that's already leaking.

Canaries
The prices of crude oil and gasoline continue their climbs, setting new records almost every day, and the equity markets can't seem to stop sliding in the opposite direction. Ordinary working Americans will tell you that nearly everything costs a lot more than it did a year ago.

As if increasing home foreclosures and the so-called "mortgage crisis" weren't disturbing enough, last week IndyMac Bancorp collapsed, one of the largest bank failures in U.S. history, and promptly was bailed out by the feds. Now Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is expected to ask Congress for the ok to buy unlimited stakes in the two biggest mortgage-finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- a pre-emptive bailout, ostensibly to help restore confidence in the American financial system.

Let's be clear about what's happening here: The U.S. government, itself crippled by self-inflicted deficits, presumes to buttress an economy that's spiraling out of control. As taxpayers and consumers, you and I will both foot that bill and pay an inestimable price.

Thud. Did you hear that?

Thud. Something smells funny in here.

Thud-thud.

I think it might be time to leave the mine.

Bounty
Our garden is thriving. It's early, considering how late we planted, so I can't yet boast about harvesting bushels of tomatoes, peppers and cucumbers. Still, the small plot has yielded more than satisfaction and therapy.

This year's crop of raspberries is a tart and tasty memory, but our blackberries are starting to produce. Sprigs of fresh spearmint have garnished glasses of homemade lemonade, and various young herbs have seasoned our meals.

While awaiting this year's bounty, we're already planning next year's garden -- a much larger plot in another area of our property. This fall we'll need to till and prepare the soil, and it'll require considerably more work than our current "kitchen garden." Ideally, we'll keep seeds from the produce we consume and start them indoors in the spring.

I predict that it'll be worth the effort.

Gadgetry
My appreciation of simple things is no secret -- not in this blog, and certainly not in our household -- but last week I actually spoke these words to my wife:

"Don't worry about me going overboard on the whole primitive-skills thing, honey. Not until I finish programming my new cell-phone, anyway..."

I've been using Palm PDAs for ten years and mobile phones even longer. When my carrier contract came up for renewal last Sunday, I upgraded to a Palm Centro. Until now I'd resisted Treo-temptation, but having my familiar PDA and my phone in one nifty little package is, well, damned convenient.

I may burn in hell for saying this, but I'm really diggin' it.

Smaller bits
On Wednesday a neurosurgeon told our younger spawn, who'd expected to spend only a month convalescing from his bicycle accident, that he's sentenced to another two months in his corset brace. For a 13-year-old, I discovered, there's a fine line between disappointment and utter devastation. We're engaged in acquainting him with the difference.

We hosted a gathering of out-of-town relatives and friends on Saturday -- a typical Middle American cookout, nothing fancy. My kettle of beer-soaked bratwursts and August-vintage refrigerator pickles joined an array of meats, salads, beans and confections on a groaning buffet table. Sweet corn supplied by a local farmer, too. Fresh food, good company, great music and relaxed conversation made for a near-perfect day.

My wife and I went for a motorcycle ride yesterday, regrettably one of the few times we've ridden together this season. I won't try to explain either the logic or the joy of a meandering, stream-of-consciousness ride along rural roads on an oppressively muggy morning, never straying farther than ten miles from home, but it was as liberating as anything we've done in months.

On notice: So this is the status quo?

Sifting through this week's news, several things caught my attention.

Off-the-clock in Iraq
According to in-country reports on U.S. troops' support of Iraqi forces in Basra, recently an Iraqi captain complained to an American officer that he didn't "have enough men" to neutralize opposition snipers. The American officer insisted that the Iraqis must take point, and the reluctant captain sulked off.

The U.S. platoon waited...and waited...for the Iraqis to advance. Upon asking an interpreter where the Iraqis were, the U.S. officer was told, "Oh, they went to lunch."

And we're expecting these people to "stand up"?

Breaking for lunch may be a sign of progress, I suppose, if only in comparison to the estimated 1,000 Iraqis who outright deserted in mid-battle the week before.

Homeland security, San Francisco-style
Two days before the Olympic torch was to arrive in San Francisco, and despite foreshadowing protests in France and the U.K., three demonstrators successfully scaled cables on the Golden Gate Bridge and unfurled two large pro-Tibet banners.

Bridge-management officials -- who, by the way, were eyeing closed-circuit camera feeds at the time -- said they didn't realize that the trio were about to climb the cables because they were dressed in "ordinary" clothing and concealed their gear in a baby stroller.

Sure, banners and flags are harmless and this was a peaceful protest, but...are you thinking what I'm thinking? Do I really need to say it out loud?

I didn't think so.

Latter-day rehearsal
Prompted by the pleas of a 16-year-old child bride, federal and state authorities surrounded and entered the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints "ranch" in Eldorado, Texas. So far, more than 400 FLDS women and children have been removed from the compound, ostensibly for questioning in connection with sexual-abuse and weapons charges.

I have no stomach for the FLDS's culture of misogyny, denial of free will and rampant exploitation of children. And I'm not saying that Eldorado is comparable to Waco.

Not yet, anyway.

It's worth noting, however, that authorities' actions were selective, swift and overwhelming. Largely unnoticed is the fact that this situation has created more than 400 refugees -- perhaps temporarily, perhaps permanently. And for those who still believe that they can fortress themselves against official intervention, Eldorado is yet another woozy canary.

Pumping the brakes
We can stop debating whether or not the U.S. economy is in recession -- obviously, we passed that marker months ago.

As former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich said this morning, recession isn't necessarily a braking zone.

"...we are going to go into 2009 with a serious recession. ... You've got food and energy prices, fuel prices going way way up. You've got wages stuck. You've got people who are losing their jobs. You've got housing prices going down. I mean, it's pretty bad."

Reich also offered this ominous observation:

"I think there's no more than 20 percent chance of a depression."

Now that's encouraging.

The pages of The Wall Street Journal and Fortune aren't good places to take the pulse of our economy, and "economic indicators" fly far too high to be useful. Likewise, one's own personal financial agony or ecstasy is too grounded, merely anecdotal.

Economic reality lies somewhere in between the analyst and the checkbook -- it resides in the collective experience of everyday American workers, the cogs in the grand economic machine.

If you work in retail, for example, what has your company been doing lately? Cutting prices or raising them? Not replacing terminated or retired workers? Asking employees to dim store lights or forgo double-bagging? How do this year's sales at your store compare to last year's numbers?

When we gather and stew that kind of real-world information, it's clear that this bubble-gum-and-string economy is headed for an unprecedented fall -- and everyone knows it.

Oh, snap!
With the possible exception of the so-called "housing crisis," the most serious financial blow to Americans is the high price of gasoline and other petro-products -- which affects, of course, the price of virtually everything else we consume.

When our government or an oil company assures us that "it could be worse," they're probably referring to gas prices in other countries. But I contend that there's something else that demands our attention, even our personal preparedness.

Take a look at this chart. The red line tracks the price of regular unleaded gas since April of 2002, and the blue line follows the price of crude oil over the same six-year period. Notice the widening gap between the two prices, especially over the last 12 months.

Commodities are elastic. Something -- either oil or gasoline -- has got to give. Will we be ready when it snaps?