"...that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II."That's a relief, now, isn't it? The recession has been over for 15 months -- who knew?
Answer the damned question. Seriously, who knew?
If KintlaLake Blog readers reflect the results of the latest CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, then 25% of you believe that things are looking up. In the view of 74% of those surveyed, however, we're still deep in the woods.
Revisiting (and updating) "The Stain," posted here seven months ago, helps explain why.
A series of maps, developed by Latoya Egwuekwe using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gives us a time-lapse image of U.S. joblessness. Here's the map for December 2007, when NBER says that the recession began:
In June 2009, when NBER tells us that we reached the end of this recession, the unemployment map looked like this:
The most recent month for which complete county-by-county statistics are available is May of this year:
The national jobless rate, after hitting 10.1% last October, has jittered between 9.5% and 9.9% over the last six months. In August it was 9.7%.
The spread of unemployment's stain and its disturbing pervasiveness, illuminated by the maps, are more relevant than a single number. In virtually every corner of our country, unemployment is close and getting closer, higher than at any time in living Americans' memory.
Most of us apparently don't believe in a "jobless recovery." We're weary of experts' talk of employment as a "lagging indicator," and we're not inclined to buy what a bunch of pointy-headed econo-wonks are selling. Or, to reprise what I said in February:
"Recovery? My ass."With all that as context, I'll tell you what I do buy: High unemployment (as we define it today) is here to stay.
I don't believe that we'll see 95% employment again. A big chunk of the jobs lost during this recession probably needed to be cut, from a business-efficiency standpoint, and they won't be coming back. (By the way, I tend to agree with the view that some companies used the economic crisis as a smoke screen for doing what had to be done.)
When the dust finally settles, it may well be that 10% unemployment is considered "full employment." That will, in part, be the new definition of "recovery."
Other definitions also beg for change. Rewinding again to February:
"...recovery will begin only when we, individually and collectively, change the ways that we consume and spend. If our goal is to return to 'the way things were' before the downturn, we're dooming ourselves (and likely our children) to 'the way things are' right now."Fundamentally, our perspective needs to change -- and I mean right down to what we consider "The American Dream."
That's not pessimism talking. It's a view grounded firmly in reality -- our new reality.
